[geeks] More on global warming

[Shannon Hendrix]

On Dec 22, 2007, at 4:16 PM, Dr Robert Pasken wrote:

>> The models are themselves unreliable, that is the issue being  
>> discussed.
>>
>> Cordially
>>
>> Patrick Giagnocavo
>>
>
> On what grounds do you conclude that climate models are unreliable,  
> what
> studies, model output, what statistical analysis of results do you  
> base
> this claim?

I can't speak for him, but what I've seen is that the models  
frequently do not agree with each other, and often cannot generate  
known or historical conditions.

If they were very accurate, you'd expect several models to come to the  
same general conclusions, or be able, given historical input, to  
predict the present.

When I was being taught to do models in college, those were two of the  
most fundamental tests to perform: can your model show known  
situations, and do they agree with each other.

Do you think we've reached that stage yet?


-- 
Shannon Hendrix
shannon at widomaker.com