[geeks] Global warming, was Mr Bill?

[wa2egp at att.net]

-------------- Original message ----------------------
From: Patrick Giagnocavo <patrick at zill.net>
>
> Phil Stracchino wrote:
> 
> >> Consensus means nothing.
> > 
> > Especially coming from people whose entire life's work consists of
> > inventing voodoo economic systems built around wealth that only exists
> > on paper.  Bad counter-example.
> 
> It's perfectly apt, given the unproven and unprovable climate model
> systems built around curve-fitted and smoothed measurements that only
> exist on paper.
> 
> I am really surprised, on a "geeks" list, that people would not take the
> time to actually do even a back-of-envelope rough guess on the computing
> power needed to model even 10,000 time steps of climate (say 30 years if
> each time step were a day), given the vast number of variables and the
> way they interact with each other, even assuming perfect knowledge of
> oceans, the Gulf Stream, the Pacific High, etc.

I'm just as surprised that some people can't see the possibility of a connection between the increase in atmospheric CO2 and the increase in average earth temperature.  We do know that there is a greenhouse effect with several gases, CO2 included. 

> 
> It would take years upon years of time on any Top500 system currently in
> existence.
> 
> You can look at it from a "probability" POV, or from a "statistics" POV.
> 
> Either way, you end up with something that is not computable.
> 
> Therefore all claims of "working climate models that have useful
> predictions" are bunk.
> 
> --Patrick

What about all economic models, political models, etc.  OH, I'm sorry.  Those are based on trends.  They are all bunk too.

The reminds me of arguments from groups that oppose some scientific idea along the lines of "you can't measure the distance from New York to Chicago with a yard stick so any measurement from that device is invalid".   Yeah, OK.

Most of science is theory, not fact.  Why?  Because we haven't measured everything and may not be able to.  Theories are based on a large amount of evidence.  Global warming is not even at the theory stage but due to it's importance there is more concern about it.  I hope it doesn't happen because it will mess up weather patterns and cause problems with our food supply.  That's the major potential problem.

Whenever I talk about it, I try to put it in terms of "seems to" or "looks like" since is not a fact, just an interesting (and potentially scary) correlation.   If I haven't, I apologize.

Bob