[geeks] More on global warming

[Patrick Giagnocavo]

On Dec 22, 2007, at 4:16 PM, Dr Robert Pasken wrote:

>> The models are themselves unreliable, that is the issue being  
>> discussed.
>>
>> Cordially
>>
>> Patrick Giagnocavo
>>
>
> On what grounds do you conclude that climate models are unreliable,  
> what
> studies, model output, what statistical analysis of results do you  
> base
> this claim?
>


In order to have an accurate model, you have to understand the  
process being modeled.  Do you agree with that statement?

In order to use computing resources to solve a climate model, we are  
essentially having the computer solve via various methods, extremely  
complex mathematical equations.

In the case of the Gulf Stream (to use only one example) there is  
very little understanding of it, and it is beyond our current  
knowledge base to have any sort of mathematical model of it.

No accurate mathematical model, ergo all models based on it are  
inherently flawed and cannot be rectified.

Q.  To what extent does a (say) 1% increase in CO2 level, increase  
the population level of diatoms in the ocean (which lock up CO2 in  
their  bodies, then when they die, their remains settle on the ocean  
floor, sequestering CO2)?
A.  We don't know.

Q. To what extent would a 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature  
result in nothing other than a change in the Pacific and Atlantic  
ocean's thermocline.
A. We don't know.

etc. etc.

ALL climate models are flawed.

I have been reading up on this for 20 years, and while computers have  
gone through some 7 or more generations of CPU design representing at  
least 2 orders of magnitude increase in computing power, the  
computing power is

1). still not enough
2). not capable of being harnessed because we don't have the  
mathematical models to run on them

This is not a matter of studies, findings, research - it is a matter  
of math, specifically, "what amount of computation is needed to solve  
this math problem"?

On that basis alone all climate models fail.

The second issue, "are the mathematical models we have capable of  
describing reality" are secondary, but the answer that any person who  
researches it comes to, is that they current climate models fail on  
that basis as well.

--Patrick