[geeks] What desk toy or "tchotchke" says "geek" to you?

[der Mouse]

> You get the numbers that are published, ideally for a given location.

> Then you get a cop to tell you the arrest and conviction rates in the
> same area.

> If the arrest and conviction rates are several times higher than the
> reproted numbers, then the reported numbers are wrong.

Yes...except you don't have the arrest and conviction rates; what you
have is _one cop's idea of_ the arrest and conviction rates.  At best.
(You could actually have something more like what one cop wants you to
think the arrest and conviction rates are....)

> By contrast, it was fairly easy to find numbers in the US which
> matched what the cops reported.

> Note: that doesn't for a minute mean that what the governments in the
> US report is the truth: they routinely fudge despite evidence to the
> contrary.

So it's entirely possible that the difference is actually that US cops
are better at parroting the official line.  (This supports your
contention.)

It's also entirely possible that the difference is that US cops are
less confused about what the actual rates are.  (This opposes your
contention.)

> Since most people believe what they want to believe instead of really
> trying to find out, they get away with it.

Speaking personally, it's not so much that I "believe what I want to
believe" as that I just don't care enough to go do the digging
necessary to turn up the truth.

> If the cops almost never have to take calls into an area where people
> are well known to be heavily armed, or they perps are always
> outsiders who don't know the area, then that's a pretty sold case
> that firepower is a deterrent to crime.

Well, no.  The former could also mean that the armed folk almost always
take the law into their own hands instead of calling copper.  The
latter could also mean that all the local criminals are organized and
nobody dares call copper on the local gang/mob but has no hesitation
about doing so on strangers.

Sounds to me as though it's you who's believing what you want to
believe - specifically, seeing evidence as supporting the conclusion
you like.

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